Experts and brokerage firms are flagging concerns that a significant increase in cigarette taxes, including a 40-50% GST hike and new excise duties, could lead to a surge in illicit cigarette trade. This sharp tax increase, estimated to be 60-70% overall, risks driving consumers to smuggled products, potentially resulting in substantial tax revenue losses for the government and undermining the legal tobacco industry. Analysts note this move deviates from previous calibrated tax approaches.