A working paper from Harvard and the University of Chicago suggests President Trump's tariffs have had a less significant impact than predicted because the actual tariff rate paid by importers is substantially lower than announced. Factors contributing to this include country and industry exemptions, reduced rates by the time goods arrived, and evasion. Economists estimate the actual U.S. tariff rate was 14.1% in September, significantly less than the nominal 27.4% average, explaining why the economic effects have been less severe than feared.