An International Crisis Group (ICG) report predicts escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potentially leading to further Pakistani strikes on Afghan territory if militant attacks are traced back. While the Afghan Taliban denies harboring Pakistani militants and claims Islamabad provoked violence, their close ties to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fuel Pakistan's suspicions. Diplomatic ties are strained, trade has ceased, and Pakistan's actions against Afghan nationals have angered Kabul. The report warns of potential conflict escalation in 2026 if violence persists.