Prediction Markets Reflect Speculation on U.S. Strike and Leadership Changes in Iran

Prediction markets have seen significant activity around Iran's geopolitical tensions, with traders placing high-stake bets on events such as a potential U.S. military strike and leadership changes. A notable wager involved a $40,000 bet on a U.S. strike by mid-January, despite market odds favoring later timelines. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Manifold host various contracts reflecting uncertainty over Iran's future amid protests and regional instability, with probabilities for key events fluctuating as tensions evolve.