Fitch Forecasts Steady Global Growth in 2026 if Oil Price Shock Is Short-Lived

Fitch Ratings projects global economic growth to remain steady at 2.6% in 2026, assuming the recent oil price surge is short-lived. The world economy showed resilience despite geopolitical and US policy shocks, with growth at 2.7% in 2025. The US GDP growth forecast is revised up to 2.2%, while eurozone growth is expected at 1.3%, and China’s growth to slow to 4.3%. Fitch raised its 2026 average crude oil price forecast to $70 per barrel, noting that a prolonged oil shock could significantly reduce global GDP.