RBI Expected to Hold Interest Rates Steady Amid Moderate Inflation Rise: Crisil

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to maintain its key policy rates at the upcoming February 2026 monetary policy review, following a 25 basis point cut to 5.25% in December. Despite a moderate rise in retail inflation from 0.71% in November to 1.33% in December, inflation remains below the RBI's 2-4% target range. Crisil projects GDP growth to moderate to 6.7% in the next fiscal year from an estimated 7.4% this fiscal, citing global trade challenges and reduced fiscal support, while nominal growth may rise due to inflation. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra described the current economic phase as a 'rare goldilocks period' with strong growth and low inflation.