Tax Economist Wins Prediction Market Bet Against Musk on Federal Spending

Alan Cole, a 37-year-old tax economist, wagered his entire savings of $342,195.63 on prediction market Kalshi against Elon Musk's claim that federal government spending would be significantly reduced. Cole bet that spending would continue to rise due to factors like Social Security, Medicare, and defense costs. When the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a $300 billion increase instead of a cut, Cole won over $470,000. He strategically spread his bets to minimize risk, viewing the outcome as a calculated certainty rather than a gamble.