Prediction Markets See Hundreds of Millions Traded on US-Iran Conflict Amid Insider Trading Concerns

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi saw over $565 million traded on bets related to US strikes on Iran and potential regime changes, including the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Some new accounts reportedly made significant profits by placing bets shortly before events occurred, raising insider trading concerns. While Kalshi reimbursed some users and adjusted contract settlements, Polymarket has not commented. These largely unregulated markets face scrutiny over fairness amid ongoing Middle East tensions.