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Nomura and BofA Forecast Divergent RBI Rate Hike Paths Amid Inflation Concerns

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Nomura and BofA Forecast Divergent RBI Rate Hike Paths Amid Inflation Concerns

Analysed 30 Sept 2026·16 sources analysed·New Delhi, India·Business
Nomura and BofA Forecast Divergent RBI Rate Hike Paths Amid Inflation ConcernsPreviousNext

Japanese brokerage Nomura forecasts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will raise the repo rate by 25 basis points in both October and December, reaching a terminal rate of 5.75%. Nomura expects inflation to rise in the short term due to food and energy prices but moderate by mid-2027 amid weaker consumer demand. In contrast, Bank of America Securities projects a more aggressive tightening, anticipating a total 100 basis points increase through mid-2027, citing resilient growth and broader inflation risks. Market expectations vary, with some analysts viewing recent bank stock declines as potentially overdone ahead of RBI's upcoming policy decisions.

Sentiment
53%
TBN's observations

First-hand measurement across 15 sources

We measured how 15 outlets covered this story. No outlet gave this story a measurable political slant — there is no left–right reading to report. Overall sentiment is neutral (53/100). Lens Score 42/100.

Outlets measured: economictimes, firstpost, economictimes, news18, thetribune, businessstandard, economictimes, mint, and 7 more. See how each one headlined and framed the same story in the source comparison below.

AI analysis of 15 sources · Published under editorial oversight by The Balanced News
Analysed 30 Sept 2026· How this analysis is produced· Editorial standards· Corrections

AI Analysis

Sentiment — Neutral (53/100)

Sentiment was consistent across outlets (50–62/100), indicating broadly factual reporting rather than editorialising.

Coverage timeline

moneycontrol broke this story on 28 Sept, 03:54 am. Other outlets followed.

28 Sept, 03:54 am15 sources · 2 days30 Sept, 07:14 am
AI analysis by the TBN Bias Engine · beat methodology byMrunal Wange· Business & Economy Editor· editorial standards byOjas Kale
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  1. 1
    moneycontrol28 Sept, 03:54 am
    RBI likely to hike rates 25 bps in October, December; Nomura sees terminal rate at 5.75 - Moneycontrol.com
  2. 2
    economictimes28 Sept, 04:44 am
    Will RBI announce steep rate hikes? Nomura sees up to 50 bps increase by Dec, dismisses 125 bps hike fears
  3. 3
    zeenews28 Sept, 06:16 am
    RBI likely to cap interest rate hikes at 25-50 bps, inflation could ease in 2027: Report
  4. 4
    freepressjournal28 Sept, 06:46 am
    RBI May Limit Rate Hikes To 25-50 Basis Points, Report Sees Inflation Cooling In 2027
  5. 5
    thestatesman28 Sept, 07:13 am
    RBI may limit rate hikes to 25-50 Bps in current cycle
  6. 6
    moneycontrol28 Sept, 11:37 pm
    Markets pricing 125 bps RBI hikes, but Nomura says bets are too aggressive; sees just 50 bps- Moneycontrol.com
  7. 7
    news1829 Sept, 11:15 am
    Nomura projects terminal repo rate of 5.75 pc following October, December hikes
  8. 8
    mint29 Sept, 11:24 am
    RBI rate hikes: Nomura predicts only 50 bps against market's 125 bps bet, anticipating moderation in inflation pressures Mint
  9. 9
    economictimes29 Sept, 12:25 pm
    RBI may face two hikes, one dilemma as repo rate is seen hitting 5.75 soon: Report
  10. 10
    businessstandard29 Sept, 01:04 pm
    Nomura projects terminal repo rate of 5.75 following Oct, Dec hikes
  11. 11
    thetribune30 Sept, 05:11 am
    RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities - The Tribune
  12. 12
    news1830 Sept, 05:16 am
    RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities
  13. 13
    economictimes30 Sept, 05:31 am
    RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027: BofA Securities
  14. 14
    firstpost30 Sept, 06:19 am
    Why RBI may raise repo rate by 100 bps through H1 2027
  15. 15
    economictimes30 Sept, 07:14 am
    Will RBI rate hikes intensify selloff in bank stocks? Analysts explain why fears may be overdone

Who's involved

Institutions and figures named across source coverage.

Government
Monetary Policy CommitteeReserve Bank of India
Corporate
Nomura Holdings

Story context

Category
Business
Location
New Delhi, India
Sources analysed
16
Last analysed
30 Sept 2026
Key entities
InflationReserve Bank of IndiaInterest rateIndiaBasis pointRepurchase agreementReal gross domestic productBrokerCentral bankRun batted inPrice of oilUnited States dollar