A US think tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), has assessed a moderate likelihood of renewed armed conflict between India and Pakistan in 2026, citing heightened terrorist activity and sustained military posturing. The report also notes a moderate likelihood of conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan. These assessments follow a brief confrontation in May, triggered by a terrorist attack in Pahalgam and India's subsequent operation targeting terror infrastructure. Despite calls for ceasefire, provocative statements and ongoing terrorist presence are noted, alongside accelerated defense acquisitions by both India and Pakistan.