Official survey data suggesting a significant drop in the US immigrant population in 2025 may be misleading, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis analysis. Researchers suggest fewer non-naturalized immigrants are responding to government questionnaires due to increased enforcement, overstating the decline. While surveys indicate a drop of 1.86 million, the Fed's estimates, based on employment data, suggest a much smaller decrease between 123,000 and 627,000.