Ocean Salinity Patterns May Intensify El Niño, Increasing Monsoon Risks for India

Researchers at Duke University have identified ocean salinity patterns as a key factor that can increase the intensity of El Niño events by about 20% and double the likelihood of extreme episodes. This finding, based on 65 years of data and climate models, is significant for India, where El Niño often weakens the monsoon, raising drought risks. India, already facing heatwaves and water shortages, could see worsened monsoon variability if an El Niño develops in 2026, highlighting the need for improved forecasting.